tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1414025411716568353.post8640717127992576785..comments2023-10-17T05:20:29.635-04:00Comments on Shadowed Forest of World Politics: Finding a Positive-Sum Solution: The Bahraini CaseWilliam deB. Millshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07103937881679464836noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1414025411716568353.post-36571666026380338932011-03-12T01:52:28.600-05:002011-03-12T01:52:28.600-05:00I actually find it highly unlikely that Iran will ...I actually find it highly unlikely that Iran will invade Bahrain or that anyone in Iran has expansionist aims there. Iranian influence is another story. Bringing weapons in, financial support etc.<br /><br />As for Saudi, it certainly values the Bahrain leaders (or,rather, their religion) but with the unrest in Saudi now, would the Kingdom be up for helping Bahrain's regime militarily? I don't know.<br /><br />Bahrain seems to be a unique case, as you say, but mostly because of the foreign interests involved. The US certainly does not want to see the fall of the regime as it allows the island to be home of one of our biggest naval fleets. Saudi doesn't want the regime to fall either. Iran, on the other hand, probably does. But with the fall of Mubarak leading to a more resistance-based Egyptian government (probably), with Iraq leaning towards Iran, with the rise of Hezbollah in Lebanese politics...<br /><br />It seems as though Iran would be focused to the West.<br /><br />End unorganized rant,Chrishttp://www.notesfromamedinah.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1414025411716568353.post-63411586007696597802011-03-10T10:47:49.142-05:002011-03-10T10:47:49.142-05:00I agree that the fear of protests opening the door...I agree that the fear of protests opening the door to Iranian influence is legitimate, as is the fear that it will lead to a Saudi invasion followed by both a vicious clampdown in Bahrain as well as a new wave of repression in Saudi Arabia, with resultant opening of the door to Israeli influence. All this would be likely to raise social tensions and lead to a much more violent confrontation between the people and the regime in the future. <br /><br />Both sets of fears are legitimate. I think the question is, "How best to avoid these two extremes?"William deB. Millshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07103937881679464836noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1414025411716568353.post-61624341725015416092011-03-10T06:26:19.979-05:002011-03-10T06:26:19.979-05:00The fair that Bahrain protest opens way to Iranian...The fair that Bahrain protest opens way to Iranian influence is not a far fetched argument. it is a genuine fair going by Iran's ambition of expansionism and regional power.HURRIYYAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16278469524925626405noreply@blogger.com