Shadowed Forest of World Politics

Former Saudi Intel Chief Warns Against Iran War Scare 'Hyperbole'

2012-01-29T11:05:00.001-05:00

Now a Saudi national security official joins Israeli and U.S. current and former policy-makers charged with defending their countries' security in warning against the current anti-Iran war hype. Everyone who thinks Riyadh wants an Israeli/U.S. war against Iran should pay careful attention to Turki al-Faisal's recent comments. Former Saudi intel chief Prince Turki al-Faisal just made the

Emerging Economic War Vs. Iran: Worth the Effort?

2012-01-27T19:25:00.003-05:00

Iranian legislators are considering an embargo on oil exports to West Europe, in response to the West European decision to embargo oil imports from Iran. Pardon me for failing to take this seriously as economic warfare: I predict the international oil market will turn out to be fungible (take a drop away here, get a drop from somewhere else). As diplomatic repartee, however, Iran scores! More

Provoking an Oil War Is a Bad Bet for the U.S.

2012-01-24T13:24:00.000-05:00

Perhaps Washington has a secret plan for defeating Tehran in a contest over oil, but Tehran has enormous tactical advantages, while the relevance of Washington's vast military superiority appears questionable. Has anyone in Washington actually thought this out? Departing Russian Ambassador to NATO Dmitriy Rogozin cautioned that: Iran is our close neighbor, just south of the Caucasus. Should

Democracy Fans the Sparks of War

2012-01-23T17:46:00.002-05:00

Much can be said about the U.S/Israeli conflict with Iran, and unfortunately much--way too much--is being said. The most important thing for the security of all of us right now is to take all the hot air with a grain of salt. The conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran is a complicated affair. Security fears, proliferation concerns, clashing ambitions to "run" the Mideast, and of course a

Children Playing With Nuclear Matches

2012-01-19T16:59:00.000-05:00

Russian, American, and Israeli national security thinkers warn against launching a war on Iran: do the politicians care? Former CIA acting director John McLaughlin: military action against Iran "would be a very bad option." McLaughlin continued: one of the big problems with Iran is if you get into an open confrontation, a military confrontation, you risk a cycle of retaliation

IDF: Nuclear Iran 'Could Deter' Israel

2012-01-17T10:31:00.004-05:00

A senior IDF general has admitted that a nuclear Iran "could deter" Israel. Exactly. Slicing through Netanyahu's rhetoric equating Iran to Hitler, the IDF has revealed the real reason Israeli expansionists like Netanyahu fear Iran. According to Major-General Amir Eshel, head of strategic planning for the armed forces,: A nuclear-armed Iran could deter Israel from going to war against

Will Netanyahu's Provocations Backfire?

2012-01-15T17:28:00.000-05:00

Netanyahu’s combined efforts to push the U.S. into a war on Iran as a smokescreen for his plan to absorb the West Bank and to manipulate the U.S. presidential election may open the door to an alliance of U.S. and Israeli national security officials who believe in security through peace and justice. Netanyahu is interfering in the current U.S. Presidential campaign to put into office a

U.S. Policy on Iran Invites Third-Party Provocations

2012-01-13T13:06:00.000-05:00

U.S. policy toward Iran is not just designed to fail but designed to hand the initiative to America's enemies. Washington claims that its goal is to prevent Iran from militarizing its nuclear technology but single-mindedly adheres to a policy designed to avoid achieving that goal. Assuming Washington is sincere in its professed intent but simply confused about how to get there, the policy--

U.S. Policy on Iran Is Designed to Fail

2012-01-09T13:58:00.004-05:00

Intentionally or not, Washington's policy toward Tehran is flawed politically, historically, and psychologically. It is a policy designed to fail. Never, ever say “please” if you can get away with spitting in someone’s face. That, in this highly civilized new century, has become the essence of American policy toward Iran. Many in Washington will surely defend this approach as “the only

Winners and Losers

2012-01-08T21:03:00.001-05:00

When you think policy makes no sense, perhaps you just haven't figured out who benefits. With Washington's humiliating public pressure on Iran pushing Tehran into the proverbial corner, from where it will predictably fight tooth and nail, one can only wonder what Washington's real game is. Clearly, a rational U.S. policy designed to persuade Tehran to relinquish nuclear arms would be designed

Yelling 'Fire!' in the Nuclear Theater

2012-01-06T18:15:00.001-05:00

The issue of Iranian nukes is far too important to be treated with glib soundbites.Those who cannot bring themselves to speak responsibly about such critical issues only reveal their lack of qualifications for national leadership and provoke one to wonder what their real game is. The mainstream American media is full of undefended assertions that the Iranian nuclear program "can" or even "

Jobs!

2012-01-04T12:53:00.002-05:00

Stop whining. There are plenty of jobs. All you 20 million unemployed Americans should just stop whining. There are plenty of jobs, with far more to come. Everyone who wants to work can get ten offers tomorrow morning. First, that imperial embassy in Baghdad is so big it will never have enough support personnel and security guards. Second, all those Pakistani truck drivers for U.S. forces in

Challenge to the War Party

2012-01-04T12:23:00.000-05:00

American media are being flooded with calls for aggression against Iran, all replete with glib assumptions and careful avoidance of any deep analysis of what might go wrong. Here is what I want: an argument for launching a war against Iran that is intellectually honest and profoundly self-critical, an argument that enumerates assumptions and questions them, an argument that searches for what

Transparency! Responsibility! Regulation!

2012-01-03T11:46:00.000-05:00

America—American society and ruling elite—needs some good, old common sense New Year’s Resolutions. To me, three seem pretty much to sum it up: transparency, responsibility, and regulation. It is only common sense that a democracy cannot function if officials are allowed to hide what they do from those who hired them; no powerful official can for long resist the temptation in a dark

Reforms to Rebuild America

2011-12-22T15:22:00.000-05:00

The absurdity of some ambitious politicians and the timidity of the rest makes me wonder if the U.S. may need revolutionary reform in order to survive, i.e., a legal, non-violent movement (imagine Occupy gone nationwide minus police brutality) so profound that it generates revolutionary restructuring of the political and financial system. OK, nice dream, right? But what might the policy goals

Iraqi Lessons

2011-12-21T12:20:00.000-05:00

The Washington elite decision to invade Iraq occurred for reasons that thinking Americans will bitterly debate for much of the rest of this century. Like it or not, the influence of that decision will be heavy on the shoulders of every person alive on earth for the rest of that person’s life. The question now centers on the lessons we all learn. Lesson #1: War does not create democracy. If

Pakistani Academic Warns of U.S. Threat

2011-12-20T12:57:00.000-05:00

Opinion and policy emerge not just from the politicians but also from informed society. If a recent Pakistani academic's assessment of the U.S. as a threat that Pakistan must counter by cooperation with Iran and Russia becomes representative of Pakistani public opinion, the U.S. is likely to face a significant diplomatic and strategic defeat. At a recent meeting with an Iranian delegation,

Shooting Ourselves in the Foot

2011-12-20T11:36:00.000-05:00

Human nature creates crises: the safer, smoother, more stable things are, the more risk people will take, sooner or later wrecking all that stability. Despite the outpouring of analyses of the 2008 Financial Crisis, it remains unlikely that society has internalized this lesson about the ever-present threat of human nature even as regards economic crises, however obvious the message may be. How

Pakistan Resists U.S. Energy Interference

2011-12-19T17:56:00.000-05:00

In view of the current lust of Republican politicians for the environmentally dangerous Keystone Pipeline that would pour filthy shale oil from Canada into the U.S., one can only imagine how those same politicians would react if a foreign country tried to prevent the U.S. from solving its energy problems. But that is exactly what Washington appears to be doing to poverty-stricken Pakistani

Assessing Blame for the U.S.-Iranian Conflict

2011-12-19T15:52:00.003-05:00

The U.S.-Iranian contest for status appears highly dangerous: even if the players are in the game for purposes short of war (e.g., national status, personal career), miscalculation is an ever-present threat. Moreover, the game is expensive on numerous levels, not least the waste of oil powering all those U.S. ships in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, assessing who is to blame is critical. It's not

Impediments to U.S.-Iranian Reconciliation

2011-12-18T19:48:00.000-05:00

The Obama Administration's stance toward Iran, while at least refreshingly nuanced, remains caught in the overall grip of provincialism and absence of creativity that has characterized U.S. policy since the Islamic Revolution. Recent remarks by General Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, reflect this disturbing combination of insights amid blindness. The U.S. Chairman of the Joint

Pakistan Contemplates Iranian Triumph Over U.S.

2011-12-11T13:10:00.001-05:00

With the U.S. allegedly already in the midst of a covert war against Iran (most recently suggested by the violation of Iranian airspace by the now-famous captured drone), a Pakistani report illustrates a significant degree of sympathy for Iran. The potential for a Pakistani-Iranian entente rises with every passing day in the face of U.S. intransigence toward both. In a very serious analytical

U.S.-Pakistan: Sliding Down a Slippery Slope

2011-12-10T17:59:00.002-05:00

Dynamics may generate behavior at multiple levels, so the short-term dynamics do not necessarily forecast long-term trends, but still, the daily course of events in U.S.-Pakistani relations suddenly seem noteworthy. First, consider that at precisely the moment of greatest public irritation in Pakistan with the long-standing U.S. practice of causing heavy collateral damage, we are hearing about

Provoking a Pakistani-Iranian Alliance

2011-12-05T12:08:00.002-05:00

For those who need more nightmares to keep them awake at night, consider:The U.S. is rapidly alienating nuclear Muslim Pakistan; Israel is threatening to attack non-nuclear Iran. Are Washington decision-makers thinking about the long-term implications of their extremist tactics toward these two large Muslim neighbors? It should be obvious to all decision-makers that simultaneously alienating and

Rogue Regimes

2011-12-04T09:57:00.003-05:00

The (right-wing, expansionist) Israeli lobby puts its foot in its mouth and clarifies the debate over whether or not the U.S. can afford an alliance with the current Israeli regime. An organ of the rightwing faction of Israelis called the Emergency Committee for Israel just made the following statement [kudos to Mondoweiss for alerting us to this]: The Obama message is loud and clear: the world

It's Crazy to Convince Your Enemy that You are Crazy

2011-12-02T16:40:00.002-05:00

Ex-Mossad Chief Meir Dagan, as everyone who reads a decent newspaper cannot but know, is once again publicly drawing attention to what he sees as the danger of Netanyahu's extreme public hostility (the word "war-mongering" comes to mind) toward Iran. Does Dagan have reason to fear a disaster caused by Israel? Given Dagan’s experience on the point of the spear confronting Iran, his recent

Iran Policy: Making the Same Mistake Over and Over

2011-12-01T19:48:00.000-05:00

Insisting on digging deeper the hole you are standing in constitutes evidence of psychological decline. U.S. policy toward Iran is an example so obvious that even hardline Israeli intelligence officials are getting nervous. The possibility of American decline has traditionally been seen by Americans as virtually impossible by definition, at least in recent decades. Americans tend not to remember

Washington Is Empowering Iran

2011-11-30T18:42:00.000-05:00

Washington pundits may not understand Iran, but they are right about one issue: Tehran does pose a real challenge to the U.S.-centric global political system. Unfortunately for the U.S., Washington does not understand the nature of the challenge, and its response is just empowering Tehran. (Clues: it's not about nuclear arms or religion.) Washington tough guys stand facing Iran with that "

The American Nightmare

2011-11-22T11:14:00.000-05:00

When the American Dream becomes defined in terms of money and force rather than values, then it will fade into "The American Nightmare." The American Dream, as every American knows, is a gem whose facets are values. We Americans actually don't spend a lot of time thinking about the American Dream, which is a great misfortune in times like these when it is under direct attack. If we do think about

Thinking Through the "Peace" After an Israeli Attack on Iran

2011-11-18T13:35:00.002-05:00

Asking whether or not military victory is worth achieving strikes most people as totally counter-intuitive. How can being better off possibly be worse than not being better off? The devil is in the dynamics, and the causal dynamics underlying relations between an isolated victorious military power and a host of less powerful but larger, insecure, and angry neighbors challenge the ability of any

Force Is the Answer

2011-11-16T19:18:00.000-05:00

The Washington-Tel Aviv Axis determined by the start of the new century that violence was the answer, regardless of the question. That determination constituted the foundation of U.S. post-9/11 foreign policy. Having "worked" in the sense that it maintained the elites in power and magnificently enriched them, it is only predictable that those same elites would apply their foreign policy answer to

The Day After Victory

2011-11-16T12:42:00.004-05:00

Almost anything could happen were Israel to take the enormous gamble of launching an unprovoked war against Iran. Even assuming Israel were to win the instant military victory of Likudniks' dreams, the day after that victory Israel would face a new situation replete with instability. How the new dynamics provoking that instability might interact would spell the difference between survival and

Thinking About an Israeli War on Iran

2011-11-12T19:21:00.004-05:00

"All options" in U.S.-Iranian relations have in fact never really been on the table. Compromise has not been an option. That would entail the end of the regional nuclear double standard as well as the recognition of Iran as a coming regional power. So Iranian-Israeli war continues to threaten. Does the Tel Aviv war party have a logical case? What, from that perspective, is the "best" that could

Iranian-Israeli Death Dance

2011-11-11T16:04:00.011-05:00

In 2007 a scenario analysis of Iranian-Israeli relations suggested that the two sides would harm themselves by continuing on their confrontational course. That finding is coming true, with the harm now visible in both the domestic and foreign situations of each society. Meanwhile, the bilateral death dance continues... With Israeli militarists firmly in control of both Israeli and U.S. Mideast

Government Action Against Big Finance Criminals?

2011-11-10T10:41:00.003-05:00

Broadly speaking, Washington appears to be in collusion with Big Finance, leaving the two of them in collision with The People. But collusion with the super-rich may be going out of favor…”maybe.” Some evidence exists that government is becoming fed up with the excesses of the super-rich. Assessing this evidence requires scrutiny of the details and attention to the results, specifically

Creating Enemies

2011-11-09T19:20:00.002-05:00

Undermine their democracy movement. Install a dictator. Pump him full of weapons. Ignore the complaints of the people until they turn in desperation to a religious extremist who kicks you out. Support the invasion of a vicious neighborhood dictator. Threaten the dictatorship, shoving it further to the right. Slap it in the face for any show of moderation -it must be a trick! Build up a local

Do Not Mention the War

2011-11-08T18:16:00.001-05:00

Political correctness is a pretense of politeness covering for abuse of power, and the most taboo of all the politically correct taboos is reference to the war that the super-rich and their political lackeys are so successfully fighting against the other 99.9%. Is it really a case of government-corporate collusion to defraud and rob the people? To answer that question, you need to look at the

The Next 100 Years: Incentives

2011-11-07T19:53:00.000-05:00