Shadowed Forest of World Politics: December 2012

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Saturday, December 29, 2012

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U.S.-Iran Relations

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"Governing for the People" Newsletter

Government for the people...or the elite? Can you tell the difference?

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Watching the World

Informed Comment

Analysis of 184 Israeli Forced Displacement Orders in Gaza show they are a Crime Against Humanity - Nadia_Hardman ( Human Rights Watch ) – Removing civilians from harm’s way in advance of an attack is the right thing for warring parties to do if it’s the ...
1 hour ago
Mondoweiss

Senate rejects effort to block arms sales to Israel - 18 lawmakers joined Bernie Sanders' effort to block arms sales to Israel, but the vast majority of the Senate voted against the measure.
4 hours ago
Democracy Now!

Dr. Mehmet Oz Wants to Privatize Medicare. Trump Just Picked the TV Star to Head Medicare Agency - President-elect Donald Trump has tapped several TV personalities for key posts in his incoming administration, including Dr. Mehmet Oz to run the Centers f...
16 hours ago
Syria Comment

Why America and Israel need a new Iran strategy - Mobilization of Arab resources to crowd Iran out is more practical than using US power or Israeli covert ops to subjugate Iran or to coercively roll it b...
3 years ago
From the field

David Scott Palmer, RIP - It saddens me to note the passing of David Scott Palmer, my colleague for 25 yrs. Scott was a skilled Latin Americanist, a fine teacher & a remarkably ge...
6 years ago
Gary's Choices

The Art of No Deal - The Art of No Deal: *I asked myself what would happen if President Trump was serious about transforming the JCPOA in his own image. My answer (a bit lon...
7 years ago
EA WorldView

Yemen Feature: Saudi Coalition Dropping Cluster Bombs --- Human Rights Watch - *PHOTO:* *Aftermath of a Saudi airstrike on Yemen's capital Sana'a on Wednesday (Khaled Abdullah/Reuters)* ------------------------------ Human Rights Wa...
8 years ago
بنسبة لنا

Is the United Kingdom Following the United States in Syria? - On June 26, Seifiddine Rezgui wandered onto the Sousse beach resort in Tunisia and opened fire, killing 38, including 30 vacationing British citizens. The ...
9 years ago
Friday Lunch Club

UN reveals Israeli links with al Qaeda in Syria - Haaretz "... Reports by UN observers in the Golan Heights over the past 18 months reveal the type and extent of cooperation between Israel and Syrian opp...
9 years ago
Just Foreign Policy - Daily News

JFP 10/16: NYT Budget Numbers in Context? Bogus Bibi Claim on Iran ICBM - *Just Foreign Policy News, October 16, 2013 NYT Should Put Budget Numbers in Context; Bogus Bibi Claim on Iran ICBM Based on US Threat Inflation* *Help ...
11 years ago
The Race for Iran

Race for Iran Is Going to Tehran - With the impending publication of our Going to Tehran: Why the United States Must Come to Terms with the Islamic Republic of Iran, we have decided to move...
11 years ago
Iran in the World

Weekly roundup - Articles and reports from the past week “Calibrating the dual-track approach of sanctions and diplomacy” With the EU and the US passing additional sanction...
14 years ago
Coteret

-

Show 10 Show All

Nel mezzo del cammin di nostra vita
mi ritrovai per una selva oscura,
che la diritta via era smarrita.

Global Questions

1) Civilian Deaths: Drones vs Terrorism

What is the moral distinction between civilians being killed by Predator drones or terrorism?

2) Who Are the Bad Guys in Afghanistan?

Are the 'bad guys' al Qua'ida, the Taliban, or the drug-dealing, US-allied Northern Alliance?

3) Islamic Radicalism: Cause or Effect?

Is the insurgency in Afghanistan & Pakistan a threat for the U.S. to resolve or a response to the U.S. military presence?

4) Two States or One Democracy?

Can the world afford a Jewish state + a Palestinian state or need we work toward a single genuine, multinational democracy?

Iraqi Deaths From U.S. Invasion

Muslim Africa: Must Read

Secret U.S. Drone Base Archipelago
The CIA's Secret Sites in Somalia

Afghan Conflict: Must Read

A Holiday Season of War
Opium, Rape, and the American Way
Ellsberg: Obama Fears Military Revolt
Creating a Narco-State
Afghan War Statistics
Global War on Islam
U.S. in Afghanistan for Strategic Reasons
Transnational Threat of Afghan Opium
Congressman Ron Paul on Withdrawal

Iran: Must Read

The IRGC
Mainstreaming the Mad Iran Bombers
Iraq, Afghanistan...and Iran?
Farhi: Nuclear Breakthrough Gone Backwards
Giraldi: Five Reasons Not to Attack Iran
Can Iran Trust Russia & France?

Mideast: Must Read

Saudi Popular Grievances & Regime Denial
Where Are the Islamists?
Obama Supports Egptian Dictatorship
Algeria's Protests
US War Party Exploits Arab Revolt
The Transformation of Hamas
Potential U.S. Leverage Over Israel
No Partner For Peace: Our America Problem

Enduring Global Issues Newsletter

Gaza

IR Theory

E-IR
Islam & IR
Evolutionary World History
IR Theory

Statistics

U.S. Soldiers Who Fought in Iraq: 1,000,000
Mexican deaths in 2007 from drug cartel violence: 2500
Hectares of land stolen from displaced Colombians: 2,900,000
Pakistani women who die annually during childbirth due to poor medical facilities: 135,000
U.S. Troops in Pakistan (Jan. 4, 2008): 50
% Drop in Food from Israeli War on Gaza: 59%
Israeli Cluster Bombs Dropped on Lebanon: 4,000,000
Israeli Residents in Palestine: 440,000
Iraq War U.S. brain injuries: 24,000
U.S. wounded from Iraq War: 50,000
$/day cost of Iraq war to US: $275,000,000
Somali refugees: 1,000,000

Engaging Islam Project

"proud participant in model community project to enhance understanding"

Notable News

Stiglitz on Global Economic Reform
West Interfering in Pakistani Internal Affairs
Nuclear Proliferation by Corrupt U.S. Officials
Defending Democracy...in the U.S.
Concealed Bush Steps Toward Iran War
Pakistani Troops Refuse to Fight Taleban
A New Holocaust?
Azerbaijan: New Base for US Attack on Iran?
Undermining American Democracy
Folly of Possible U.S. Attack on Iran
30,000 Endangered by Tripoli Violence
Colombian Government Collusion with Paramilitaries
Post-US Invasion Iraq Now to Export Heroin
Israeli Cluster Bombs in Lebanon
Iraq War Cost $500 Billion
Walls Dividing Neighbors Around the World
Israel Nuclear Plans vis-a-vis Iran
Terrorism against Iran

World Affairs Movies

Sons of Eilaboun [Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine]

Global Affairs Organizations

American Foreign Policy
Center for the Study of Terrorism & Political Violence
Conflicts Forum
Engaging Islam Project
Environmentalists Against War
Foreign Affairs
Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy Association
Global Exchange
Gulf 2000
Human Security Report
ICAHD (Israel)
Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU)
Institute for Policy Studies
Just Foreign Policy
Mianeh (Iran)
Mianeh (Iran)
Middle East Policy Council
National Priorities
New America Foundation
New Iran Policy
Peace & Collaborative Network
POMED
Relief Web
Rethink Afghanistan
Stop the War Organization
TFF
The Independent Organization

Global Affairs News Sources

Afghan Security Report
Ahram
Al Manar
Alternative Information Center (Levant)
Antiwar.com Iran Page
Asia Times
Common Dreams
Coteret
Democracy Now
European Media Monitor
Foreign Policy in Focus
Foreign Policy Journal
France24
Geopolitique
Guerrilla News Network
Haaretz
Hurriyet Daily News
I Watch News
Information Clearing House
Institute for Middle East Understanding
Inter Press Services
International Middle East Media Center
Iran Focus
Iran Quest
Iran Review
Iran Tracker
Iraq Slogger
IRIN: UN Humanitarian News
Khabar
McClatchy
Media With Conscience
MERLIN
Middle East Report Online
Mideast Monitoring Group
Monthly Review
Online Journal
Pakistan Politics
Palestine Note
Palestine Review
Palestinian Think Tank
Pro-Iran
Real Clear World
Real News
Reseau Mondial d'Informations
Reseau mondiale d'informations
Rooz Online
South Asia News
Tehran Bureau
The Independent
The Journal of Turkish Weekly
The Nation
Truthdig
Turkish Daily News
Uruknet
What Really Happened
William Bowles Info
Worldwide Socialist Web

Global Affairs Blogs

A Look at the Mideast
A Tiny Revolution
Adam Isaacson on Colombia
Afghan Analysts Network
All Things Counterterrorism
Alternatives International
Alternet
American Footprints
Angry Arab
Another Point of View
Arab American Journalists
Arabist
Armies of Liberation
Arms Control Wonk
Balkinization
Beirut Report
Ben White
Bernard Avishai
Big Think
Blacksmiths of Lebanon
Blogging the Casbah
Central Asia
Conflicts Forum
Copenhagen Mideast Blog
Countercurrents
Crossroads Arabia
Cutler
Cyrano's Journal
Daily Reckoning
DeepakTripathi
Democracy Arsenal
Electronic Intifada
Emergency Times (Pakistan)
Empire Burlesque
Empire Notes
Enduring America
Finkelstein on Israel/Palestine
Foreign Policy Blogs
Foreign Policy Watch
Freedom House Blog
Friday Lunch Club
Gary Sick
Get Afghanistan Right
Ghosts of Alexander
Global Economic Analysis
Global Muslim Brotherhood Daily Report
Global Research
Grand Trunk Road (Pakistan)
Green Commons
Harvard on Mideast
Heavy Metal Colombia
Historiae
Huffington Post
Hybrid States
Indus Asia Online Journal
Informations et Reflexions
Informed Comment
Inside the Middle East
Intelligence Briefs
Iran Affairs
Iran Coverage
Iran in the Gulf
Iran in the World
Islam on Line
Israel's Occupation
Israeli Policy Forum
Istanbul Calling
J Street
Jadaliyya
Jerome Slater
Jews for Justice for Palestinians
Jihadica
Jim Lobe
Jnoubiyeh
Jonathan Cook on Israel
Joshua Landis on Syria
Just Foreign Policy
Just World News (Helena Cobban)
Justice Denied - Pakistan
Kawther on Palestine
Keeping the Change (Iran)
Lawrence of Cyberia
Lebanese Political Journal
Lebanese Politics
Lebanon Again
Lenin's Tomb
Lobe on IPS
Mahjood Zweiri
MajaGama (Pakistan)
Majlis
Matters of Principle (Gary Hart)
McClatchy Iraq Blog
Middle East Monitor
Middle East News
Middle East News and Comment
Middle East Politics
Middle East Progress
Middle East Studies
Mideast Brief
Mideast Reality
Mondoweiss
Nasir Khan
New Economic Perspectives
News and Comment
Newshoggers
NIAC Blog
Nir Rosen
Nur al Cubicle
Occident
OpEd News
Open Democracy
Pakistan Paindabad
Pakistan Policy Blog
Pakistan Politics
Pakistan Tea House
Palestine Chronicle
Pamir Post
Planet Iran
Power of Narrative
Progressive Mind
Prospects for Peace (Palestine)
Race for Iran
Reality, One Bite at a Time
Realtime
Rebel Reports
Reformed Broker
Registan
Registan
Rene Naba (Mideast)
Renegade Eye
Resilience Alliance
Rime Allaf
Roads to Iraq
Rootless Cosmopolitan
Rose-Covered Glasses
Samson Blinded (Mideast)
Saudi Debate
Security Dilemmas
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Somali News
South Jerusalem
Speaking Truth to Power
Strategic Thinking
The Magnes Zionist
The Washington Note
Tom Dispatch
Total Wonker
Tribal Wars
Urshalim
Uskowi on Iran
Vineyardsaker on Mideast
War and Piece
War in Context
Watandost (Pakistan)
Westhawk
William Beeman
Wish You Orwell

Global Affairs Readings

Akbar, The Shade of Swords
Anonymous, Imperial Hubris
Atwan, The Secret History of al Qaeda
Baer, Sleeping with the Devil
Barshamian, Targeting Iran
Behr, Une Amerique qui fait peur
Bonini & d'Avanzo, Collusion
Brzezinski, Second Chance
Chomsky, Interventions
Cooley, Unholy Wars
Diamond, Collapse
Everest, Oil Power & Empire
Farmer, The Uses of Haiti
Johnson, Nemesis
Kennedy, The Rise & Fall of Great Powers
Khalidi, The Iron Cage
Lance, Triple Cross
Leech, Killing Peace
Levy & Scott-Clark, Deception
Politkovskaya, A Dirty War
Ponting, A Green History of the World
Prestowitz, Rogue Nation
Raman, Flashpoint
Tainter, The Collapse of Complex Societies
Takeyh, Hidden Iran
Valencia, Adios a la politica, bienvenida la guerra
Zepezauer, Boomerang!

About the Author

General:
PhD, political science, U. of Michigan; observer of global affairs; retired from U.S. Government (last position Director of Methodology, NIC); specialist in applying nonlinear methods to studying the future of international relations, focusing on the Western-Islamic confrontation

Selected Publications:
> NEW! 8/17/12 Tools of the Rich

> NEW! 7/22/12 Enemies of Capitalism

5/23/12 "Mutual Transparency to End the U.S.-Iranian Dispute"

> 4/14/12 "Obama's Iran Dilemma"

> 3/10/12 "Changing Irrational Regimes"

> 2/5/12 "City on the Hill?"

>1/16/12 "Will Netanyahu's Provocations Backfire?"
< 12/23/11 "Iraqi Lessons"
< 11/15/11 "Would Defeating Iran Help Israel?"
> 9/12/11 "Turkish-Egyptian Possibilities"
> 8/29/11 "The Speech Bernanke Should Have Given"
> 6/14/11 "Can Erdogan Save Syria?"
> 6/9/11 "Is Israel Plotting...or Stumbling Toward...Mideast War?"
> 5/25/11 "Wooing Cairo"
> 4/9/11 "How to Spot a Hypocrite...and Understand Washington's Budget War"
> 3/14/11 "Riyadh Foments Counterrevolution"
> 2/24//11 "New Mideast Rules"
> 2/15/11 "A New Mideast Policy?"
> 1/31/11 "Arabs Stand Tall"
> 1/26/11 "Washington's Mideast Dilemma"
> 1/25/11 "Lebanon: Sunnis Fighting Sunnis"
> 12/11/10 "Turkish Opportunities"
> 7/20/10 "Israeli Theocracy"
> 6/7/10 "Turkey's Next Steps Vis-a-Vis Israel"
> 6/6/10 "Iran's Opportunity"
> 4/25/10 "Positive-Sum Mideast Strategy"
> 3/24/10 "American Security & Israel: The Core Issues"
> 3/16/10 "Time for a Change, Washington"
> 3/16/10 "Mideast Peace or Fascism?"
> 2/16/10 "Palestine & Global Security"
> 2/12/10 "'Team Washington' Can't See the Palestinian End Zone"
> Dec 8, 09 "Wanted: An American People's Party"
> Dec 3, 09 "Hammering Islamic Radicals"
> Nov 4, 09 "Defense of the Morally Bankrupt"
> Sep 21, 09 "Iranian Nuclear Dispute: Resolution, not Humiliation"
> Sep 4, 09 "To Entice Tehran, Washington Must 'Get Real'"
> July 1, 09, "A Day in the Life of Israeli Extremists"
> May 31, 09 "Lebanon: Mideast Tipping Point"
> May 27, 09 "Smarter Iran Policy Begins With New Attitude"
> Apr 08, 09 "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 04, 09 "Militarism & Financial Excess: Two Sides of the Same Coin"
> Feb 25, 09 "Israeli Sabotage of U.S.-Iranian Detente"
> Jan 29, 09 "Gaza: Laboratory for the Power-Hungry"
> Dec 18, 08 "South Asian Marshall Plan"
> Dec 4, 08 "Mumbai: The 9/11 Precedent"
> "The Challenge of the Times"
> "Pouring Money Down a Rat's Hole"
> "Western-Islamic Confrontation: The Elite vs. the People"
> "U.S.-Iran Talks: Setup for Failure?"
> "Forests or trees: clear thinking about social science systems"
> "A Scenario for decline in America"
> "Reasoning from cases in world affairs"
> "Working smarter: Computers as stimulants for human creativity"
> "The Methodology Tutor: An introduction to new social science research methods"

Media Attention
> NEW! 1/20/12 "Netanyahy's Provocations" cited and discussed on Capitol Hill Blue
> NEW! 1/20/12 "Netanyahy's Provocations" reprinted by Islam Daily
> NEW! 1/17/12 "Netanyahu's Provocations" reprinted by Information Clearinghouse
< 11/16/11 "Would Defeating Iran Help Israel?" reprinted by Nasir Khan blog
> 9/13/11 "Turkish-Egyptian Possibilities" cited by PeaceandJustice, NasirKhan blog, yahyasheikho786
> 6/14/11/ "Can Erdogan Save Syria?" cited by Exposing
> 6/14/11/ "Can Erdogan Save Syria?" reprinted by Pemot
> 6/14/11/ "Can Erdogan Save Syria?" summarized by Turkish Digest
> 6/9//11/"Is Israel Plotting" summarized on F U Corporate Media
> 6/9//11/ "Is Israel Plotting"cited by Liquida, EIN's World News Report
> 6/9/11 "Is Israel Plotting" reprinted on Sabbah Report, Nasir Khan Blog, Peace and Justice Post
< 5/26/11 "Wooing Cairo" reprinted by There Are No Sunglasses Weblog
< 4/11/11 "Riyadh Foments Counterrevolution" excerpted by Friday Lunch Club
2/2/11 "Washington Needs New Mideast Friends" cited on Political Wind
12/12/10 "Turkish Opportunities" summarized on Erkon's Field Digest, Turkish Digest
12/11/10 "Turkish Opportunities" summarized on Truthfeeds
> 10/12/10 "Modeling U.S.-Iranian Relations" cited on Broken Controllers
>10/4/10 "War Clouds" cited on Broken Controllers
> 6/7/10 "Iran's Opportunity" cited by Tree of Liberty
> 6/7/10 "Turkey's Next Steps" cited by Positive Universe
> 4/29/10 "Mideast Peace or Fascism" reprinted on Free Thought Manifesto
> 4/26/10 "Positive-Sum Mideast Strategy" summarized on Positive Universe, MyNewsHub, Politifi, PDA Illinois
3/1/10 "Time for a Change, Washington"
> 3/16-7/10 Ближневосточный мир или фашизм? ("Mideast Peace or Fascism?") pub. by Rt.Korr Rossiya, Nash Mir; translated & pub. by INOSMI
> Mar 16, 10 "Mideast Peace or Fascism?" excerpted by Naked Facts; cited on Lebanon Wire, Positive Universe
> Mar 14, 10 "Cracking the Washington Groupthink on Israel" cited by Political Wind
> Mar 8, 10 "Is Washington Building a Pro-Iran Coalition?" cited by Political Wind
> NEW! Feb 16-18, 10 "Palestine & Global Security" cited by APPAF, Mind Magician, Positive Universe, Peace by Truth, Sarkhat, MiddleEast
> NEW! Feb 12-13, 10 "Team Washington" cited by Bing, Political Wind, Polskawalczaca, Interceder Net , Silobreaker,
Positive Universe
> Nov. 5, 09 "Defense of the Morally Bankrupt" reprinted by Kanan48, cited by Positive Universe
> July 2-3, 09 "A Day in the Life of Israeli Extremists," reprinted by Terrorism Watch, Silicon Investor chat forum
> June 10, 09 "Mideast Nuclear Umbrella" summarized in Sphere
> May 31, 09 "Lebanon: Mideast Tipping Point" reprinted by Voltaire Net
> May 31, 09 "Lebanon: Mideast Tipping Point" cited by Nuhairi, Positive Universe
> May 27, 09 "Smarter Iran Policy" cited by Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Payvand, INI, Iran War Zone, the Common Ground Blog, Democracy Arsenal, Positive Universe, GULF Research Center, Iran Internet Index, Gulf in the Media
> May 27, 09 "Smarter Iran Policy" reviewed by Homeyra
> May 27, 09 "Smarter Iran Policy" reprinted by Respect Discussion Board, CASMII, Iranquest
> "Israeli Sabotage of U.S.-Iranian Detente" summarized on What Really Happened
> Apr 15, 09 Progressive Mind reprints "Alleviating Iranian Security Concerns"
> Apr 14, 09 Atheo News excerpts "Invading Muslim Societies"
> Apr 14, 09 Bibijon citation of "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 14, 09 Newstin, METimes report on "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 12, 09 United Progressives cited "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 11, 09 Persian Journal report on "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 10, 09 Iranian report on "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 10, 09 UPI summary of "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 9, 09 Human Security Report Project abstract of "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 8, 09 NH Peace Action reprints "Managing the Iranian Challenge"
> Apr 6, 09 Carapice reprints "Militarism & Financial Excess"
> Polish translation of "Gaza: Laboratory"
> Feb 25, 09 Atheo News reprints "Israeli Sabotage of U.S.-Iranian Detente"
> Feb 1, 09 The Agonist reprints "Gaza: Laboratory"
> Feb 2, 09 Opinion Artillery features "Gaza: Laboratory"
> Jan-Mar 09 "Gaza Laboratory" cited by Idiedee, MERLIN
> Jan-Mar 09 Democratic Underground features for discussion "Gaza Laboratory"

Recent Presentations:
> NEW! "Modernization of the Islamic World" at Mansfield Center, U. Montana
> "How to Think about War Against Iran" at U. Alaska
> "Future Analysis" at U. Alaska
> "Future Analysis" at ISA
> "Diagnosing the Health of the Global Political System" at RPI
> "Diagnosing the Health of the International Political System" at ISA
> "Nonlinear dynamics in world politics" at UCLA Computational Social Science Conference

Contact me.

william.deb.mills@verizon.net

Blog Archive

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Events: Recent

Feb 2011: The U.S. in Afghanistan @ U. Montana

Nov 8-17/07: Working with UAA Political Science Department classes
Nov 9: Working with UAA Air Force ROTC
Nov 9: "Analyzing the Future" - Lecture @ UAA
Nov 8: Interview at Alaska Public Radio
Nov 8: KUDO Radio interview
Nov 8: "How to Think about War against Iran" - Lecture @ University of Alaska, Anchorage

Events: Upcoming

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welfare (1)
WMD (2)
world affairs (65)
world politics (852)
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My Websites

Learning from History
Methods for Analyzing the Future of the Global Political System
Personal Website
Political Systems Consultancy

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