Iran does not want what one might call a regional apartheid political system in which Israel can have nuclear weapons while Iran cannot; Israel can attack neighbors at will while Iran cannot even provide military assistance to its allies; and Iran continues to be criticized for its domestic political system because it is out of step with the U.S.-centric international political system. Iran wants respectful treatment, recognition of its right to play a leading role in the Mideast even as it chooses its own path, and a fundamental reconsideration of both Iran's and America's proper regional role.
If Kerry visits Tehran either holding a cake in his hand or a knife behind his back, the mission will fail.
Obama tried upon election to make Washington’s words about the Muslim world more civilized, but when it came to changing U.S. behavior he has had little impact. Americans need to demand a rational foreign policy that considers the perspectives of others and rejects war as the answer. To achieve those goals, talking to adversaries is essential. Nevertheless, a Kerry visit to Iran would be very dangerous at this moment.
It is tempting to compare a Kerry visit to Iran with Nixon’s path-breaking trip to China, but the conditions are very different. Nixon’s trip was a visit both sides had decided was necessary to face down a third-party threat. The problem in US-Iranian relations is a disagreement over bilateral issues. No consensus exists in Iran that there is a need to deal with a U.S. justifiably seen as duplicitous. And even after Gaza and Somalia and Lebanon and Afghanistan and Pakistan and Iraq, Americans still have not learned that war is not the answer. Therefore, even though diplomacy is desperately needed to avoid a mutual disaster, now is probably not the moment for grandstanding.
Tehran has every reason to be suspicious. Washington has been sending very clear signals for years that any deal with Iran will come only on U.S. terms, and U.S. terms are that Iran accept the U.S. domination of the global political order plus a free pass for Israel regionally. Most seriously, this means that nuclear rules that are to apply to Iran will not apply to Israel. If Kerry goes just to talk Tehran into accepting discriminatory nuclear restrictions that do not apply to Israel, his trip will only make matters worse.
What offer could Kerry take to Iran that would persuade Tehran that the U.S. was serious about addressing its concerns?
Kerry could probably offer total U.S. support for Iranian uranium refinement up to 20% (medical grade), an offer to negotiate a joint policy toward Afghanistan and Iraq, complete termination of economic sanctions, aid to modernize its petroleum industry (including gasoline refinement), and acceptance of Iran’s support for Hezbollah and still see Tehran dismiss him out of hand.
Why? Would such a list of concessions not be generous? Well, yes, if one sees the U.S. as the father of world nations, that list would be a nice handful of presents to the Iranian child. But Iran does not see itself as a child begging for toys. Iran sees itself as an emerging regional leader meriting a respectful hearing and having the right, without asking for permission, to find its own path. The U.S. needs to present the case for why Iran should choose a path that excludes the militarization of nuclear technology, not a case based on threats but a case that would persuade a true Iranian nationalist that voluntarily renouncing nuclear weaponization is the most beneficial path for Iran.
All those seemingly significant U.S. concessions would still not address Iran’s fundamental complaint that the U.S. wants Iran to play by discriminatory rules that would leave Iran a second-class citizen. The bottom line is that Iran does not want what one might call a regional apartheid political system in which Israel can have nuclear weapons while Iran cannot; Israel can attack neighbors at will while Iran cannot even provide military assistance to its allies; and Iran continues to be criticized for its domestic political system because it is out of step with the U.S.-centric international political system.
Were Kerry to put on the table an offer to accept the long-term principle of a single regional nuclear standard, Tehran might well take notice. Such a revolutionary move would also go far toward justifying Obama's Nobel Prize.
But will Obama dare to go this far? And could he back up such an offer, given the self-destructive nature of U.S. domestic politics?
Even if Obama dares to take a historic step and can pull it off in terms of domestic politics, history cautions us that the grand play that puts all eggs in one basket is inadvisable. Iranians will not have forgotten the absurd bungling of Reagan’s Iran-Contra scandal, and Obama’s impatient mishandling in recent weeks of the effort to cut a deal with Iran to trade uranium suggests that Washington still has little idea how to work with Iran.
The idea of a Kerry trip is great; the timing is probably not yet right. The alternative idea of parliamentary talks, which would be lower-level and less sensitive but still get to or possibly even involve key security official Ali Larijani makes more sense at the moment.
The urgency is great, as indicated by the Manichean blindness of Alan Kuperman’s recent call for war in the New York Times that was so ably refuted by Marc Lynch. The U.S. war party is far from dead. The urgency is also great because political conditions in Iran are getting steadily worse, empowering the most extremist elements. Extremists who see the world as black or white and worship the use of force have great power on both sides. But that does not mean, indeed perhaps that is precisely why, we should step gently down the road toward resolution of the Iranian-U.S. nuclear dispute. Now is the time for broad, quiet technical talks to lay out mutually beneficial solutions not just to the nuclear dispute but to the basic contradictions in our respective concepts of acceptable Iranian and America roles in the Mideast.
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